Мathematical model of change of a state of health of the population and demography in uniform territorial and time space

To develop mathematical model of change of a state of health of the population and demography in uniform territorial and time space.As material characteristics of individual and public indicators and the joint their changes in system of delivery of health care on maintenance of the state of health of particular persons reflecting it fluctuations served. Irregularity is presented in the form of the piecewise and continuous periods that provides a possibility of planning of the potential public actions connected with the volume of population shift and other studied changes of a state of health.The model of representation of epidemiology as one of forms of manifestation of demographic process and option of mathematical check of a possibility of modeling of the described process with the transition to linear system concerning the gaps occurring at the considered spasmodic changes corresponding in observed processes is the basis for a technique.The new mathematical model reflecting development of change of a state of health of the population is offered it is similar to manifestation of demographic and migratory processes. A control inspection of calculations on a concrete example of the area situated near Moscow with the population of 60 thousand people is carried out. She confirmed a possibility of receiving results with the expected accuracy and stability for justification of planned organizational and administrative decisions on creation of steady process of life support in the considered territory.The mathematical model uniting individual and public changes of a state of health of the population with reflection of conditions of environment of the place of stay and accommodation of the population, feature of the work performed by them, influences of environment (large-scale accidents, infections, pandemics, professional harm) and other indicators for life support and activity of this population is developed.

epidemiology, demographic process, mathematical modeling

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