Methodological approach for predicting the exposure doses to the population in the existing exposure situation

Abstract

Long-term predictions of exposure levels to the population are required in order to support long-term planning of actions and resources on optimization of measures for radiation and social protection of the population and rehabilitation of territories in the remote period after the Chernobyl accident.Analysis of working materials of the IAEA document «Prediction of radiation doses to the population and its critical groups in the remote period after the Chernobyl accident» and the results of our own long-term studies have made it possible to develop a methodological approach for predicting exposure doses to the population living in radioactively contaminated territories of Belarus for a remote period of 40-50 years after the Chernobyl accident. The predicted values of the coefficient of the relation between the external exposure dose of a representative person and the density of contamination of the settlement territory with 137Cs for 2026, 2031 and 2036 were determined in order to assess the predicted annual effective external exposure dose.We obtained the dependences of the relative internal exposure dose of a representative person in settlement residents versus time to assess the predicted annual effective internal exposure dose.